The post-Thanksgiving shopping phenomenon known as Black Friday routinely shifts investors’ attention toward the retail sector. As the holiday season begins, the group is emerging from a period of notable underperformance, which may present a counter-trend opportunity as retail earnings season nears its end and holiday spending comes in focus. The S & P Retail ETF (XRT) , a broad proxy for the space, recently completed a peak-to-trough decline of 13.6% from its September high, underscoring how earnings season has thus far failed to inspire buyers. This downdraft has fueled bearish sentiment, which from a contrarian standpoint can create an appealing backdrop for retailers heading into year-end. Oversold conditions have returned for XRT per the weekly stochastic oscillator for the first time since April, increasing the probability of stabilization after its correction. The DeMARK Indicators® have also generated a fresh counter-trend signal, last seen near the April low, supporting firmness through the holiday period. Initial support for XRT is defined by its 200-day moving average (MA) near $78, while initial resistance is at the 50-day MA near $84. A decisive breakout above the 50-day MA would support a more meaningful recovery, with secondary resistance at the September high ($89.41). Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) , the retail industry’s two largest companies by market cap, remain in structural long-term uptrends. Beyond that, their technical profiles diverge… AMZN has weakening momentum and overbought indications, while WMT has improving momentum and room to overbought territory. AMZN’s chart began to deteriorate after the stock gapped higher on earnings. That gap has since been filled, and the pullback coincides with a bearish crossover in the weekly MACD indicator and a confirmed counter-trend signal from the DeMARK Indicators®. These imply that AMZN is likely to remain in a corrective phase. In contrast, WMT recently triggered a bullish crossover in the daily MACD indicator after discovering support from daily cloud model (shaded on the chart). The cloud’s lower boundary, currently near $102.50, offers a reasonable threshold for a stop-loss. On the weekly chart, the cloud model depicts a healthy secular uptrend that extends into Q2 2026. The recent upturn in weekly stochastics provides a positive catalyst, supporting potential for new all-time highs above final resistance near $110. We expect both WMT and XRT to benefit from their relatively oversold condition in the weeks ahead, especially if holiday spending proves strong. Meanwhile, a broader shift from growth to value makes AMZN comparatively less attractive in the near term. —Katie Stockton Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC (“Fairlead Strategies”) for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author’s current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
